Machiavelli's 49er Draft Breakdown

A review of who the 49ers could take at #11:

1. Patrick Willis

• Why They Should Take Him: Willis is the best ILB in the draft. He's a monster tackler and has clocked in with speedy 40 times at the combine and his pro-day. He can play coverage, he can blitz, and he is most strong in run support. He was able to make big plays in a very competitive college division (SEC). Willis also has the strong character with a great work ethic that Nolan says he wants. Because the 9ers want to run a 3-4 it makes sense to be drafting linebackers, a position they are pretty thin at. Current starter Derek Smith is getting old and was not very effective last year.
  
• Why They Shouldn't Take Him: Some have commented that Willis, who was a MLB in a 4-3, would be too small to get past blockers in an NFL 3-4. Additionally, the 49ers defense has a lot of holes, and LB is probably a less important problem. They could probably do fine drafting David Harris in the 2nd round or H.B. Blades somewhere in the late 2nd/ early 3rd. LB is not a particularly strong position in this draft and perhaps Willis's position has been inflated because he is the only MLB with 1st round potential.

2. Alan Branch

• Why they should take him: It is difficult to find a player of Branch's size and athleticism. You can't coach size, and at 6-6, 330 pounds, Branch has plenty of it. He would be an ideal fit at NT in a 3-4. The 9ers current starter, Aubrayo Franklin is a veteran big guy, but he doesn't have the stature of Branch and is a newcomer to the team. Branch is the kind of run stopper and anchor you can build your defense around. He would also be a value pick, as some mock drafts have him going as early as 6th. Possibly the BPA.
• Why they shouldn't take him: Two issues have caused Branch to fall: diagnoses of permanent shin injuries and claims that he takes plays off/is incapable of playing a whole game. These are the kind of issues that have some analysts wondering if Branch has bust written all over him. In other words, Branch may be a high risk player, albeit with a high upside. Additionally, NT is also not a drastic team need as they already have two players (Franklin and Sopoaga) to play the position.

3. Adam Carriker

• Why pick him: Carriker would be an ideal fit for the 49ers as a 3-4 DE. DE is probably the 49ers number 1 need. Carriker is excellent at filling gaps and can fill up space for LBs to tackle or blitz. He's also at a position with high draft value.
• Why not: #11 is probably too early to pick Carriker. If the 9ers don't pick him he could fall to 15 or 16 or even later. Drafting Carriker would definitely be a pick based on need rather than on BPA. Carriker is also not a great pass rusher, so the question is why pick a guy at #11 when you could get similar role players in the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th rounds.

4. Jamaal Anderson

• Why pick him: Anderson is a raw talent athletic DE. He could be a standout NFL pass rusher. He would easily fit into the 3-4 system and at DE he would be a sensible pick for #11.
• Why not: Anderson does not have great technique nor is a good run stopper. He's also been all over the boards ranging from late top 10 to mid 1st round. It's not clear if his size dominance in at the collegiate level will transfer to success at the NFL. As with Carriker, DE is a position with a lot of depth in this year's draft.

5. Ted Ginn, Jr.

• Why pick him: WR is a need for the 49ers. Ginn probably has the second fastest game speed in the draft and is a gamebreaker type playmaker. He's a decent route runner who excels at running slants and go routes. Ginn is also the best KR in the draft, which is another position where the 9ers need help.
• Why not: Ginn is a second tier WR (Johnson being the only member of the 1st tier) and the49ers could probably get a strong 2nd tier guy in the 2nd round. Additionally, history has shown that you can get good WRs in later rounds. Ginn is not really worthy of a #11 pick unless it's a major team need. The 49ers already have Lelie and Battle, so WR is not an absolute must have. Another issue to consider is that Ginn played on a high powered offense in college where his abilities may have been inflated. There is also significant question as to if he can develop into a polished route runner.

6. Levi Brown

• Why they should pick him: Some mocks have him going as early as #5 to the Cardinals, so it is unlikely he will be at #11. Brown is the second best LT in the draft, a position with high draft value and a position the 9ers need as Jennings enters what will probably be his final year.
• Why they shouldn't: Most agree that Brown's value is overrated because his at a important position with very little depth in this year's draft. He's not a great pass blocker, which is a pretty serious flaw for a LT, since that's why you pick 'em (protect QBs blind side). Some have even compared him to Kwame Harris...ouch.

To Bring it all together: In 5 years if we were to rank the top 10 (correction--> 12) players of the 2007 draft, I think they would be:

1. Calvin Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Laron Landry
4. Jamarcus Russel
5. Patrick Willis
6. Joe Thomas
7. Ryan Kalil
8. Justin Harrel
9. Jamaal Anderson
10. Greg Olsen
11. Gaines Adams
12. Brady Quinn

we'll just have to wait and see.